Someone says forty thousand. I ask if that’s just the cabinets, or if they’ve put the countertops and the lighting and the trades in there — electrical, plumbing, all of it.

They usually haven’t. And they didn’t add a contingency.

They picked a round number and assumed the kitchen fit inside it. Then they gravitate toward nicer finishes. It almost always happens. The number was already short before they liked the better door. One trade comes in over and the whole project flinches.

The tile isn’t what blows it. The unpriced stuff is.

Demo opens a wall and there’s water damage, or old wiring, or someone else’s hidden DIY. The panel can’t take the new loads. You move the sink and now you’re rerouting drains. The subfloor under the old dishwasher is garbage. The hood needs an exterior penetration and makeup air nobody quoted. Lighting — recessed, decorative, undercabinet — adds up faster than anyone expects. The countertop wants a different edge and a second slab. Permits and inspections. Contractor markup.

None of that is on Pinterest. All of it is real money.

A contractor opened an older ceiling and the tile and hit asbestos. Had to be remediated. Nobody had a line for it. It came out of the rest of the kitchen.

Everything is more expensive than you initially work it out to be.

Contingency is 15–25%. Not 10%. The textbook number is wrong for kitchens. Too many trades. Too many touchpoints. Too much behind the drywall that nobody sees until it’s open. A cosmetic refresh in a newer house can live closer to the bottom of that band. A gut of an older home lives at the top. If you’re touching multiple trades and opening walls, 10% will not save you.

If your number can’t take a 20% surprise, it isn’t a budget. It’s a wish.